What happens now? We may as well call this what it is: a revolution. Because nothing else comes close to capturing the political revolt – and the chaos that surely follows – from Donald Trump''s stunning victory in 2016.America and its relationship to the world has fundamentally changed overnight. Instead of being an expansive, outward-looking, globalist power, the United States has definitively turned inward, shutting its borders to Mexicans, Muslims and any number of other perceived enemies of Trump''s demagogic imagination.
America itself has been redefined. The bond between its president and its constitution will be strained, if Trump pursues a fraction of what he so clearly promised through this extraordinary election.
His political enemies – notably Hillary Clinton – can expect prosecution led by an FBI that previously found no grounds for legal action over her private email server. The Trump Department of Justice will seek prison time for Clinton, and the only barrier to this punishment is the third and independent branch of government: The judiciary.
Trump promised a deportation force to round up hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of undocumented immigrants starting on his inauguration day in January. His transition to government will surely be dominated by plans to rip through the Latino communities of America''s largest cities. There will be no judicial restraint in these immigration cases.
Amid the political upheaval, we can expect massive economic dislocation. The financial markets will now be calculating the price of uncertainty in global trade flows as they contemplate Trump''s promises to impose huge tariffs on China, restrict international investment by US companies, and force an epic diplomatic breach with Mexico over his beloved wall.
Taken together, Trump''s victory ushers in the most tumultuous period of American history since the Great Depression and the start of World War II. It will challenge the core concepts of American identity and global security as we have known them for generations.
Overnight, Russia has moved from perennial rival to trusted friend, while Nato''s future is in peril. Allies can now expect to pay for their security umbrella, as the US military effectively turns into a mercenary force. Many countries may find cheaper options and break with the US entirely.
Without American assurances of peace, the delicate balance of power and deterrence may well shift decisively in the Middle East and Far East. We can expect a rush to nuclear proliferation as quickly as one major country – Saudi Arabia or Japan – decides to move ahead with an independent nuclear arsenal.
For now, the political establishment in Washington needs to figure out quickly how to respond to this revolution. Republican leaders who shunned Trump will now stampede to his side, but they are unlikely to be forgiven by a man who harbours long and deep grudges. Democrats will be tempted to indulge in Trump-like politics that reflect his populist attacks on foreign forces, diverse communities and personal peeves.
These reactions will be monumental mistakes. The Trump administration needs to be challenged at every turn if Congress is to maintain its independence as a check and balance on executive power.
Revolutions rarely end where they begin. They unleash forces that have been hidden or ignored for years, and perhaps decades. They tear apart families and communities, civil society and private commerce. In a huge and complex country, this revolution may have unequal impact, leading to open conflict in some areas and little more than a shoulder shrug in others.
But, over time, the Trump revolution will be felt in every corner, as the tax base is decimated by a tax-avoiding president, and the deficit balloons out of control. There is no escape from an economic policy that will bankrupt the world''s largest economy, in the hands of a businessman with plenty of experience of bankruptcy.
With no self-discipline, no intellectual curiosity and a vengeful mindset, the Trump White House will make the Nixon years seem like the paragon of virtue they never were. –The Guardian
Richard Wolffe
