Good rain forecast for crop season While Namibians this past week rejoiced when the first rains of the rainy season fell, a new report says weather forecasts points to a higher likelihood of normal rains during the 2016/17 crop season for Namibia.The report that has just been released by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) says the planting of cereal crops for 2017, mainly maize and millet is expected to commence in December and continue into January. “Weather forecasts currently point to a higher likelihood of normal rainfall across much of the country until March next year,” says the report.
According to the report, cereal production this year is estimated to have increased by 18% compared to the drought-reduced output of 2015.
However, at the current level, the national total cereal output is still 29% below the previous five-year average.
It further says this year''s increase is mainly due to a higher millet output and a larger harvest from the irrigated maize crop that was derived from the commercial sector.
In the communal sector, production of maize is estimated to have declined by 16%, and is over two-thirds below the average.
According to the report, severely suppressed seasonal rains, on account of the 2015/16 El Niño episode, was the main driver behind the poor agricultural performance in 2016 in the communal sector, and particularly affected the regions of Oshana and Zambezi in the north.
Furthermore, pastures were also negatively affected by the prolonged dryness, adversely impacting livestock body conditions and resulting in some losses in Kunene and Erongo regions.
It says that due to the impact of the drought as well as increased demand from South Africa, sales of cattle increased on a yearly basis during the second quarter of 2016.
The impact of the regional drought and the reduced domestic harvests in 2015 and 2016 has put sustained upward pressure on food prices, resulting in increasing maize meal prices over the last two years.
According to the report, prices in August this year were up to 20% higher than their earlier values.
However, it says that the recent decline in grain prices in South Africa, the main source of imports that satisfies the bulk of Namibia''s consumption requirements, has eased import costs and limited inflationary pressure. Prices of sorghum and millet are also well above their values of the preceding year.
ELLANIE SMIT