Hope for rain on the horizon Experts warn that although there is an improved outlook for rainfall this season, domestic water supply will remain critical unless the dams receive sufficient inflow. Inflow into dams takes place only when the rivers are in flood. That means that heavy showers are needed to ensure that water flows into the dams instead of sinking into the ground.
“We must remember the dams are almost empty. So we need significant inflows into our dams to fill them up. Good rains might break the drought and will be good for agriculture, but in terms of domestic water supply, challenges remain,” a local expert said.
He said the type of rainfall plays a critical role.
“The spread and intensity of the rainfall determines if rivers will flow.
“There is a big difference between 10mm each day or one big 100mm storm. The 10mm wets the grass but the rivers don’t flow.”
He said the country’s best hope is for regular thunderstorms and floods, which will fill up the storage dams.
Last week, following the 20th annual Southern Africa regional climate outlook forum (Sarcof-20), weather experts released a statement saying that most parts of the region can expect normal to above-normal rainfall between October and March 2017.
According to meteorologist Simon Dirkse, Namibian weather experts are convening next week to compile a national outlook for Namibia in particular.
Dirkse said current weather models indicate it is likely that most of Namibia will experience a better rainy season this year than in the last two years.
He said rainfall should normalise this year, but taking into account normal weather variability, some areas might receive above-average rainfall and others less than average rainfall.
He said the public can expect a statement following next week’s national weather forum.
At Sarcof-20, the climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence the weather in the SADC region. In particular, the El Niño Southern Oscillation is foreseen to be shifting from warm, through neutral to a cold phase, also referred to as La Niña, during the coming rainy season.
The long-term prediction for December, January and February is that more than 600mm of rain will fall over much of Malawi, Zambia, Angola, the southern half of the Democratic Republic of Congo, central and northern Mozambique, as well as Mauritius, Madagascar and Seychelles.
“The remainder of the region will receive rainfall of less than 400mm, gradually decreasing south-westwards to southwest South Africa and Namibia, where the mean rainfall is below 100mm,” it added.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs predicted in July 2016 that there is a 55 to 60% chance of La Niña occurring toward the end of the year, compounding the impact of El Niño.
In the southern African region, La Niña brings wetter than normal conditions, and often leads to extensive floods.
JANA-MARI SMITH / NAMPA